Can we FINALLY put this ridiculous argument that one party owns the morality code to bed, once and for all? Let's take a look at how the mighty GOP has fallen:
Newt Gingrich--impeaching Bill Clinton for an affair, while cheating on your wife at the same time!? The height of hypocrisy. But this is Newt. He has a career of such hypocritical activity. Bringing down Jim Wright on his book deal, only to ink a book deal signing bonus of his own.
Rudy Giuliani--Dating Judy Nathan while in Gracie mansion with Donna Hanover? And let's not even discuss that first marriage to his cousin. Or the dressing in drag scene.
Sarah Palin--Ms. Family values certainly has kept her all-American family in the public eye...er...except that part about the child out of wedlock.
Rush Limbaugh--thrice divorced, drug-addictions...yeah, this is the leader of the cultural and spiritual Right, who gets to sit in judgement of other's wrongdoings. Swell pick, Conservatives...
Mark Sanford--seems like a solid family values guy. Except the whole running off to Argentina to be with his girlfriend thing. What's this I am hearing about potentially having other girlfriends as well? For a boring guy, seems like a lot going on at the Governor's mansion in South Carolina.
John Ensign--"honestly, how can Bill Clinton have lied to his WIFE in such a way as this...er...I mean John Ensign, how could you have accused the former President of such an immoral act? You would NEVER be caught DEAD in such a situation, right? Whoopsie...
Larry Craig--Sorry, this one's too easy...
Mark Foley--jeepers, I am running out of shock and awe here!
Duke Cunningham--I give up!
It's time to get back to debating real issues here. Who's going to help me get better service for my taxpayer dollars? Who's going to help us with law enforcement better? Education? Environmental policy? Foreign Policy? and on and on...
Let's leave the morality where it belongs. For those of you who hold it up so high, remember what the bible says--"judge not, lest ye be judged..."
Monday, June 29, 2009
Wednesday, June 24, 2009
What is the End Game in Iran?
I saw a presentation on C-Span a little while back, from someone at the Pentagon (I wish I could recall or find that presentation. It was fantastic), where the speaker discussed how countries like Iran, Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the US, would find that they had more in common with one another over the next 15-20 years or so, and would find ways to share ideas on how to manage and govern large, multi-ethnic, heterogeneous populations.
I thought it was fascinating to hear him throw Iran into that mix, given what I had perceived it to be a country that shared few of the common attributes of the countries just mentioned: I thought of Iran as rather homogeneous, smaller in relative size, and much more autocratic, less nationalistic and less secular than many of the other countries listed.
As we are finding out, this is a much more complicated society than most of us had imagined, more pragmatic than I had believed, more nationalistic certainly than its neighbor, Iraq, and as we learn more, it becomes clear that we have more in common with a country like Iran than we may have with a country like, say, Sweeden.
As I watched this person's presentation I thought, "but for Iran to be part of the discussion on large countries sharing governance ideas, doesn't Iran have to modernize its policies and rule of law?" This would seem to be the case.
As we are currently witnessing, large nations like Iran may be able to live under certain government auspices we in the USA don't agree with or understand (theocratic rule, certain moral standards, etc). But NO nations with the size and nationalist tendencies of a country like Iran will tolerate mistreatment by its government for long, before demanding something better.
It is too clear to the public at large that the Iranian election was a fraud. It is too clear to the people that their voices are not being heard, and that telling them who their leader will be, even after choosing someone different, stands in stark contrast to the sheer will of the masses. This is a long term losing position for the Iranian theocracy, and if they don't know this, they soon will.
I suspect they do know this, and are searching for a way to hold onto the power structure they have put into place. But what does that look like?
Recent events in Iran have left me speculating as to what that country will look like a year or two from now.
The options I keep seeing laid out are as follows:
The "America's Dream" Scenario: Here, the people continue their uprising, after these days of calm have passed, and eventually overthrow the current establishment, leaving a more conciliatory leader in someone like Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who will become a great transformational leader, moving Iran towards a pro-Western stance, and a more open democracy. Call me skeptical of this scenario...
The "Tiananman Square" Scenario: The Iranian leadership cracks down hard on the protests, and in the process, takes more drastic steps to impart its will on the people. Laws and rules become more strictly enforced on certain moral and ethical codes, and opposition leaders are arrested, or detained indefinitely. The media blackout continues, and a humanitarian crisis erupts, as people strike, unemployment shoots up, and people are scared.
The "Cut a Deal" Scenario: The Mullahs agree to a more conciliatory position to those who are leading the uprising--the Mousavi's, Khatami's, Rafsanjhani factions--and a deal is reached allowing for certain geopolitical stances to be changed. Language towards Israel is tamped down, and Ahmadinejad, while still in the Presidency role, is badly weakened as an international face of the country.
I think the third scenario seems most likely, although scenario 2 seems to be playing out at this point. I hope, though, that regardless of the outcome, Iran has taken the first steps towards joining the world in more pragmatic cooperation, and can use this more positive stance towards the Western world as a way to begin to deal with the problems that all large diverse countries face.
I thought it was fascinating to hear him throw Iran into that mix, given what I had perceived it to be a country that shared few of the common attributes of the countries just mentioned: I thought of Iran as rather homogeneous, smaller in relative size, and much more autocratic, less nationalistic and less secular than many of the other countries listed.
As we are finding out, this is a much more complicated society than most of us had imagined, more pragmatic than I had believed, more nationalistic certainly than its neighbor, Iraq, and as we learn more, it becomes clear that we have more in common with a country like Iran than we may have with a country like, say, Sweeden.
As I watched this person's presentation I thought, "but for Iran to be part of the discussion on large countries sharing governance ideas, doesn't Iran have to modernize its policies and rule of law?" This would seem to be the case.
As we are currently witnessing, large nations like Iran may be able to live under certain government auspices we in the USA don't agree with or understand (theocratic rule, certain moral standards, etc). But NO nations with the size and nationalist tendencies of a country like Iran will tolerate mistreatment by its government for long, before demanding something better.
It is too clear to the public at large that the Iranian election was a fraud. It is too clear to the people that their voices are not being heard, and that telling them who their leader will be, even after choosing someone different, stands in stark contrast to the sheer will of the masses. This is a long term losing position for the Iranian theocracy, and if they don't know this, they soon will.
I suspect they do know this, and are searching for a way to hold onto the power structure they have put into place. But what does that look like?
Recent events in Iran have left me speculating as to what that country will look like a year or two from now.
The options I keep seeing laid out are as follows:
The "America's Dream" Scenario: Here, the people continue their uprising, after these days of calm have passed, and eventually overthrow the current establishment, leaving a more conciliatory leader in someone like Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who will become a great transformational leader, moving Iran towards a pro-Western stance, and a more open democracy. Call me skeptical of this scenario...
The "Tiananman Square" Scenario: The Iranian leadership cracks down hard on the protests, and in the process, takes more drastic steps to impart its will on the people. Laws and rules become more strictly enforced on certain moral and ethical codes, and opposition leaders are arrested, or detained indefinitely. The media blackout continues, and a humanitarian crisis erupts, as people strike, unemployment shoots up, and people are scared.
The "Cut a Deal" Scenario: The Mullahs agree to a more conciliatory position to those who are leading the uprising--the Mousavi's, Khatami's, Rafsanjhani factions--and a deal is reached allowing for certain geopolitical stances to be changed. Language towards Israel is tamped down, and Ahmadinejad, while still in the Presidency role, is badly weakened as an international face of the country.
I think the third scenario seems most likely, although scenario 2 seems to be playing out at this point. I hope, though, that regardless of the outcome, Iran has taken the first steps towards joining the world in more pragmatic cooperation, and can use this more positive stance towards the Western world as a way to begin to deal with the problems that all large diverse countries face.
Sunday, June 21, 2009
Iran--The Idea Whose Time Has Come
There is a notion in this world that nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come. Seldom has such a notion been as apparent as the recent Iranian "uprising". I have been watching the events of the past week and a half with astonishment, horror, fascination, satisfaction, and sheer amazement, and I can't seem to turn away. A bevy of emotions and reactions come to mind, all of which I will try to get through here, but through it all, I can't seem to get this one theme out of my mind. This could be Iran's time for "re-introduction" into the geo-political debate and discussion. This time as a constructive force and voice. All I can say is that the world just might be a better place for it.
So what have been the striking themes of the story at large? In no particular order, here is what has driven my thoughts through all this:
1. The (lack of) American role--Obama's speech in Cairo served as a key enabler in this uprising. Most importantly, it was what Obama did NOT say or do. Offering an open hand to the people of Iran, and making it clear that America was not the enemy of Islam, or Iran, was an important first step. It allowed Iranians seeking a better country, economy, and relationship with the world, to rally towards something better than a regime that had held America up as the enemy to rally against. Without the "Devil" to scare the population, it was clear that Iranian leadership would have to find other reasons for its own failures to lead their people to prosperity. And the people have begun to demand more from their leaders.
What that will entail will surely play out over the course of the next weeks and months.
I am glad that President Obama has NOT fallen for the cheap, reactionary voices of John McCain (Sen-AZ) or Mike Pence (Rep-IN) , calling for America to jump into the fray, and demand regime change. Such actions are reckless, and immediately give credibility to the Iranian leadership, who are desperate for just such a move. It is this type of thinking that has led to such a problem with the Iranian nation over the past 8 years, and it is exactly this type of thinking that America rejected last November.
2. The attempts to block out the Media--We can see how the Internet has truly changed everything. 20 years ago, the Chinese uprising was quashed in Tiannemen Square, as media was blacked out, and no one could see what was happening. Today, Iran cannot control Twitter, Facebook, or other news avenues, despite cutting off CNN, ABC, BBC, CBS, etc. The eyes of the world continue to be upon Iran, despite the Ayotollah's great wish that everyone would just stop paying attention. Unfortunately, there is no way to shut it all down, and to try to attempt it would derail an economy dependent on communications (railways, hospitals, etc). Such a move could be equally devastating to Khameni as it is to his adversaries.
It's been a truly incredible experiment in modern day technology vs. old time political dictatorship. Currently, technology is winning.
3. The diverse points of view of the Iranian people--I have learned so much about the diversity of the Iranian people in the past week. The varying degrees of religious sects, education levels, and sophistication of the population at large. It is truly a nation, not of backwards people, but of modernity, albeit very theocratic, and one that wants better relationships with the world.
4. The nationalistic pride of the Iranians--This is still a nation of mighty Persian descent, of great learning, and of past dynasties. This is NOT Iraq, which was a nation carved out across three separate and distinct religious sects, who did not get along, and never had the kind of national pride that is clearly evident in all Iranians who have been speaking of their homeland recently.
5. Repression can never last forever--As I am watching the news on this, it shows me that no country has ever been able to keep it's people repressed forever. Eventually knowledge comes to the people, and they demand a better governing body. It happened in Eastern Europe in the late 1980's, and Russia in the early 1990's. Even if Iran's new regime looks much like its old one, it will no longer be one where the people don't have a say. And that's a change we can all believe in.
Attempts to keep the people down have met their match, in a youtube video showing the murder of Neda Agha-Soltan. If the current regime isn't careful, the rallying cries of "Neda" will make the Alamo seem like a cute little forgettable one-liner in comparison.
I will continue to watch the events unfold in Iran, and I urge all of you to do the same. Any sharing of knowledge on this topic here would be appreciated.
Saturday, June 13, 2009
A little catch up on the world of politics-Pragmaticpundit style
Lots of things going on in the world these days. I couldn't make up my mind on what to write about these days. So I figured we'd try something new this week. Snapshots of the topics--in one paragraph or less. Here we go...
Palin/Letterman--Letterman's comments were childish and silly. They do demand an apology, since Letterman clearly did not understand that Willow Palin (14), not Bristol Palin (18) was with her mother at the time of the Yankee game. Palin should drop this issue, and spend more time worrying about getting her energy creds up to speed. Unfortunately, this isn't winning her any points with the independents. You have my sympathies. Time to earn our respect.
Justice Nominee Sotomayor--still waiting for something...anything that is a truly disqualifying factor to come out. She isn't a racist. She isn't even a liberal. Not even the firefighter case in Connecticut seems to be much of an issue in this debate. To use a horrible segue here, there's no smoke, no fire. Let's have our Senate Hearings, so we can finally see if this person is truly up to the challenge. So far, there's no real debate.
Obama in the Middle East--I have been truly amazed at the impact a speech in the Middle East on foreign policy can have. Has Obama's speech truly galvanized people enough to move the needle in a vote against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and rioting in the streets over the Iranian election? Could it be so? I don't see why not. After all, people seem to attribute the fall of the Soviet Empire to one Ronald Reagan speech in front of the Berlin Wall in the late 1980's. Let's see how this plays out. But it has to be encouraging to all on the side of democracy, and a more peaceful middle east.
Health Care--I am truly elated that this issue is finally getting the kind of debate it deserves. All of the talk shows had this as the centerpiece this morning. Sadly, it appears that trivialities like Single Payor are going to be debated, and could kill any real progress. If the left really wants it, they may only get it off the base of universal mandates, a la the Massachusetts model. If they get greedy and push for it now, they could end up losing the whole bill. Time to get real. Fight the fights that can be won. walking away with a better health plan than the one we have today is a victory, and you must build on the victories. Nothing in Washington moves faster than that.
GM--can we stick a fork in these guys already? Sorry, charlie. Let's break it up, sell of the parts, put up the for sale sign, and start getting ourselves back to the business of free enterprise. Yeah, it sucks. I'm not happy to have arrived at this point in my thinking. But GM's been dead since 2002, and it took this long to pull the plug. Time to get the hulking jalopy off the road, and get in some competition. Time for Government Motors to be put to bed.
Murder of Abortion doctors--This is truly abhorrent. To think that the only way to save the babies is to kill the doctors. And the sad thing is that it's working. Abortion clinics are being scared into shut down mode. I am not advocating abortions, but do we really want to go back to the days of back alley abortions? We can debate whether this is truly a state issue, or whether late term abortions should be overturned, or perhaps even discuss whether federal money should be put towards funding of abortion clinics. But this is not the way issues are debated in America. The moral majority advocates who believe in this should really look in the mirror and ask themselves what they are fighting for.
North Korea--an unstable dictatorship getting more unstable by the day. This could really be Obama's undoing. There are no good options here, and Kim Jong Il and his successor son seem intent on pushing a bad situation to the brink of disaster. What is the end game here?
Holocaust Murder--Like the abortion doctor murder, this is just a sad, tragic event. Sad because the people who were killed are (as usual) the innocent, who were in the wrong place and the wrong time. This white supremacist, holocaust denier has hopefully reminded us all that there is hate, misinformation, and radicals in this world who are ready to take a shot at destabilizing all we know here in America. And they don't all come from the Middle East.
Hopefully, I'll get more time to put more content up here in the upcoming weeks. I've been pleased with the slow down in job losses, but I am still concerned that we haven't seen a robust rehiring of people just yet. And the interest rates at the long end of the curve are really steepening out the overall 2-10 spread. Could result in stag-flation, or high-inflation. I'm sticking with gold, oil, and Swiss Francs. That and doing whatever I can to keep my job for one more paycheck, one more mortgage payment, one more savings contribution...
Palin/Letterman--Letterman's comments were childish and silly. They do demand an apology, since Letterman clearly did not understand that Willow Palin (14), not Bristol Palin (18) was with her mother at the time of the Yankee game. Palin should drop this issue, and spend more time worrying about getting her energy creds up to speed. Unfortunately, this isn't winning her any points with the independents. You have my sympathies. Time to earn our respect.
Justice Nominee Sotomayor--still waiting for something...anything that is a truly disqualifying factor to come out. She isn't a racist. She isn't even a liberal. Not even the firefighter case in Connecticut seems to be much of an issue in this debate. To use a horrible segue here, there's no smoke, no fire. Let's have our Senate Hearings, so we can finally see if this person is truly up to the challenge. So far, there's no real debate.
Obama in the Middle East--I have been truly amazed at the impact a speech in the Middle East on foreign policy can have. Has Obama's speech truly galvanized people enough to move the needle in a vote against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and rioting in the streets over the Iranian election? Could it be so? I don't see why not. After all, people seem to attribute the fall of the Soviet Empire to one Ronald Reagan speech in front of the Berlin Wall in the late 1980's. Let's see how this plays out. But it has to be encouraging to all on the side of democracy, and a more peaceful middle east.
Health Care--I am truly elated that this issue is finally getting the kind of debate it deserves. All of the talk shows had this as the centerpiece this morning. Sadly, it appears that trivialities like Single Payor are going to be debated, and could kill any real progress. If the left really wants it, they may only get it off the base of universal mandates, a la the Massachusetts model. If they get greedy and push for it now, they could end up losing the whole bill. Time to get real. Fight the fights that can be won. walking away with a better health plan than the one we have today is a victory, and you must build on the victories. Nothing in Washington moves faster than that.
GM--can we stick a fork in these guys already? Sorry, charlie. Let's break it up, sell of the parts, put up the for sale sign, and start getting ourselves back to the business of free enterprise. Yeah, it sucks. I'm not happy to have arrived at this point in my thinking. But GM's been dead since 2002, and it took this long to pull the plug. Time to get the hulking jalopy off the road, and get in some competition. Time for Government Motors to be put to bed.
Murder of Abortion doctors--This is truly abhorrent. To think that the only way to save the babies is to kill the doctors. And the sad thing is that it's working. Abortion clinics are being scared into shut down mode. I am not advocating abortions, but do we really want to go back to the days of back alley abortions? We can debate whether this is truly a state issue, or whether late term abortions should be overturned, or perhaps even discuss whether federal money should be put towards funding of abortion clinics. But this is not the way issues are debated in America. The moral majority advocates who believe in this should really look in the mirror and ask themselves what they are fighting for.
North Korea--an unstable dictatorship getting more unstable by the day. This could really be Obama's undoing. There are no good options here, and Kim Jong Il and his successor son seem intent on pushing a bad situation to the brink of disaster. What is the end game here?
Holocaust Murder--Like the abortion doctor murder, this is just a sad, tragic event. Sad because the people who were killed are (as usual) the innocent, who were in the wrong place and the wrong time. This white supremacist, holocaust denier has hopefully reminded us all that there is hate, misinformation, and radicals in this world who are ready to take a shot at destabilizing all we know here in America. And they don't all come from the Middle East.
Hopefully, I'll get more time to put more content up here in the upcoming weeks. I've been pleased with the slow down in job losses, but I am still concerned that we haven't seen a robust rehiring of people just yet. And the interest rates at the long end of the curve are really steepening out the overall 2-10 spread. Could result in stag-flation, or high-inflation. I'm sticking with gold, oil, and Swiss Francs. That and doing whatever I can to keep my job for one more paycheck, one more mortgage payment, one more savings contribution...
Saturday, June 6, 2009
Turning the corner on the economy
We have now seen the first real signs that economic recovery may be coming. There is a light at the end of the tunnel, so to speak. Recent economic data shows that the economy shed only 345,000 jobs in May. For me, the retreat from the 600,000+ range is a sign that things are starting to stabilize. Employers have substantially made employment cuts, and are starting to take a breather, to look around at where we stand.
Additionally, I have been writing here that I simply don't understand how the stock market could have rallied so much in the past couple of months, without any real positive economic data to support such a move. In the end, the most obvious answer was that government intervention with Billions, and perhaps over a Trillion dollars, had no where to go with the money, other than the stock markets, and that this has been a primary driver of the recent run up. I'm not complaining. I feel better about my investments than I have since St. Patrick's Day.
But I have some real concerns about the economy, and what economic bad news is still to come. I worry that the light at the end of this tunnel is really the train coming to flatten us. We have economic issues to still face, and work through. But the good news is that every day we work through these, and the economy, the national security, and the markets don't falter, is one more day closer to a more stable, prosperous new day.
We still need to absorb GM and Chrysler workers that are losing their jobs. Along with the corresponding dealership jobs, and supplier and ancillary jobs associated with the auto industry. We still have a housing issue of foreclosures, of rising mortgage rates, Commercial and Prime Mortgages that are starting to default. We have state crises, pension guaranty issues. The list is still long.
BUT...
We are starting to face each of these issues head on, starting with GM, and housing. States are having to make tough cuts, but most are making them, and people are starting to develop better habits of saving and spending less. While that doesn't help our economy in the near term, it does help our overall fiscal health in the long run, as people end up less reliant on a government assistance program for survival.
Stemming the tide on employment is the first step here. Stabilizing markets is the second. If we can start to figure out how to work through the home mortgage issues, I think we are on our way. Things like fighting inflation, and dollar devaluation...heck even budget deficits are more manageable when people have jobs, and businesses can hire workers. And we can start to focus on how to step on the gas, as a society, rather than fixing the leaky boat.
But this was a good week of economic data, as far as I am concerned. It could represent a changing of the tide. For the pessimist/pragmatist like me, these signs are a "green shoot" of hope for a better economic tomorrow, coming soon.
Additionally, I have been writing here that I simply don't understand how the stock market could have rallied so much in the past couple of months, without any real positive economic data to support such a move. In the end, the most obvious answer was that government intervention with Billions, and perhaps over a Trillion dollars, had no where to go with the money, other than the stock markets, and that this has been a primary driver of the recent run up. I'm not complaining. I feel better about my investments than I have since St. Patrick's Day.
But I have some real concerns about the economy, and what economic bad news is still to come. I worry that the light at the end of this tunnel is really the train coming to flatten us. We have economic issues to still face, and work through. But the good news is that every day we work through these, and the economy, the national security, and the markets don't falter, is one more day closer to a more stable, prosperous new day.
We still need to absorb GM and Chrysler workers that are losing their jobs. Along with the corresponding dealership jobs, and supplier and ancillary jobs associated with the auto industry. We still have a housing issue of foreclosures, of rising mortgage rates, Commercial and Prime Mortgages that are starting to default. We have state crises, pension guaranty issues. The list is still long.
BUT...
We are starting to face each of these issues head on, starting with GM, and housing. States are having to make tough cuts, but most are making them, and people are starting to develop better habits of saving and spending less. While that doesn't help our economy in the near term, it does help our overall fiscal health in the long run, as people end up less reliant on a government assistance program for survival.
Stemming the tide on employment is the first step here. Stabilizing markets is the second. If we can start to figure out how to work through the home mortgage issues, I think we are on our way. Things like fighting inflation, and dollar devaluation...heck even budget deficits are more manageable when people have jobs, and businesses can hire workers. And we can start to focus on how to step on the gas, as a society, rather than fixing the leaky boat.
But this was a good week of economic data, as far as I am concerned. It could represent a changing of the tide. For the pessimist/pragmatist like me, these signs are a "green shoot" of hope for a better economic tomorrow, coming soon.
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