What is the End Game in Iran?

I saw a presentation on C-Span a little while back, from someone at the Pentagon (I wish I could recall or find that presentation. It was fantastic), where the speaker discussed how countries like Iran, Brazil, Russia, China, India, and the US, would find that they had more in common with one another over the next 15-20 years or so, and would find ways to share ideas on how to manage and govern large, multi-ethnic, heterogeneous populations.



I thought it was fascinating to hear him throw Iran into that mix, given what I had perceived it to be a country that shared few of the common attributes of the countries just mentioned: I thought of Iran as rather homogeneous, smaller in relative size, and much more autocratic, less nationalistic and less secular than many of the other countries listed.



As we are finding out, this is a much more complicated society than most of us had imagined, more pragmatic than I had believed, more nationalistic certainly than its neighbor, Iraq, and as we learn more, it becomes clear that we have more in common with a country like Iran than we may have with a country like, say, Sweeden.



As I watched this person's presentation I thought, "but for Iran to be part of the discussion on large countries sharing governance ideas, doesn't Iran have to modernize its policies and rule of law?" This would seem to be the case.


As we are currently witnessing, large nations like Iran may be able to live under certain government auspices we in the USA don't agree with or understand (theocratic rule, certain moral standards, etc). But NO nations with the size and nationalist tendencies of a country like Iran will tolerate mistreatment by its government for long, before demanding something better.


It is too clear to the public at large that the Iranian election was a fraud. It is too clear to the people that their voices are not being heard, and that telling them who their leader will be, even after choosing someone different, stands in stark contrast to the sheer will of the masses. This is a long term losing position for the Iranian theocracy, and if they don't know this, they soon will.


I suspect they do know this, and are searching for a way to hold onto the power structure they have put into place. But what does that look like?


Recent events in Iran have left me speculating as to what that country will look like a year or two from now.

The options I keep seeing laid out are as follows:

The "America's Dream" Scenario: Here, the people continue their uprising, after these days of calm have passed, and eventually overthrow the current establishment, leaving a more conciliatory leader in someone like Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who will become a great transformational leader, moving Iran towards a pro-Western stance, and a more open democracy. Call me skeptical of this scenario...

The "Tiananman Square" Scenario: The Iranian leadership cracks down hard on the protests, and in the process, takes more drastic steps to impart its will on the people. Laws and rules become more strictly enforced on certain moral and ethical codes, and opposition leaders are arrested, or detained indefinitely. The media blackout continues, and a humanitarian crisis erupts, as people strike, unemployment shoots up, and people are scared.

The "Cut a Deal" Scenario: The Mullahs agree to a more conciliatory position to those who are leading the uprising--the Mousavi's, Khatami's, Rafsanjhani factions--and a deal is reached allowing for certain geopolitical stances to be changed. Language towards Israel is tamped down, and Ahmadinejad, while still in the Presidency role, is badly weakened as an international face of the country.

I think the third scenario seems most likely, although scenario 2 seems to be playing out at this point. I hope, though, that regardless of the outcome, Iran has taken the first steps towards joining the world in more pragmatic cooperation, and can use this more positive stance towards the Western world as a way to begin to deal with the problems that all large diverse countries face.