Is Scarborough Right? Could the GOP be poised for a Senate comback in 2010?

I have enjoyed watching Joe Scarborough develop over the past few years, from an opinionated Conservative into a thoughtful, pragmatic, Conservative, and a student of history. His transition to morning conversation from late night has also been a big success, and I think he is poised to be a sane voice for Conservative thought in an otherwise insane party these days.

So it made us very happy here at the Pundit, to see that Scarborough is watching the same developments in the Senate that we are, to see if the GOP has learned anything from the past two elections. Joe sees it, as do we. But what is it that we see?

Winning through Pragmatism.

Win the seats you can win by running candidates who are representative of the districts and states they actually come from. Keep the message positive. Speak to solutions. Provide a viable alternative. We all get a little leery of one-party (or in this case, one PERSON) rule in America. The problem these days is that the opposition has been so shrill, so out of touch with the real issues of the day, that people are scared off by the alternatives.

But parties constantly figure out ways to reinvent themselves, and the GOP will figure this out too. In many ways, they are already starting to.

Let's take a look at the GOP's possibilities for winning back the Senate for 2010, shall we?

1. Don't fight city hall--Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Wisconsin, Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer) and Vermont are lost causes. Every Conservative wants to defeat Barbara Boxer. Why waste the money? There are real battles to be fought, and WON. ideological battles are great, but isn't winning better? Isn't setting policy more important than having one Senate seat in California? Eye on the ball here. Short of complete economic or terroristic meltdown, Schumer is going to win. Leahy is going to win. Bayh is going to win. Get over it.

2. Hold ground--To make this work, the GOP needs to hang onto some tough fights. New Hampshire. Florida. North Carolina. Ohio. Louisiana. Kentucky. Each poses some problems. Each holds an opportunity for the GOP to show its stuff. Can New Hampshire run a candidate that can win in this increasingly blue state? Can Richard Burr shake off unpopularity to win in a state that is turning, well let's say, Carolina Blue? Will John Kaisich or Rob Portman prove to be viable candidates state wide in Ohio, a state that has turned out the GOP in the last two elections? Can David Vitter survive the DC Madam stink from a couple of years ago? Can the GOP run a viable successor to Jim Bunning (perhaps the least popular Senator in the country) and win?

The answer to each of these questions is "they had better, if they want to gain the Senate back.

3. Places for attack--The GOP can run the table, but they need some breaks.

Colorado--Michael Bennett is still an unknown commodity, and the state is still pretty evenly divided. Time to run a Republican who understands the Rocky Mountain sensibilities, and can rally support. Is Bob Beauprez that guy? The GOP hopes so...

North Dakota--Time to run a serious challenge to Byron Dorgan. It seems strange that the Dems have fared so well in ND on the Senate side. But this is still a Republican state, and should be primed for the taking.

Arkansas--Ditto for Arkansas. Blanche Lincoln is not a Liberal, but has not faced serious competition recently, which is odd for a state that is increasingly Conservative since the days of Bill Clinton. Time to put up a real fight for this seat. It is there for the taking.

Illinois--as the Dems beat themselves up, Mark Kirk should be able to thread the needle, and win the election. The GOP should make this a top priority.

Pennsylvania--Tom Ridge would be a formidable challenge to Arlen Specter, or whomever the Dems end up running. The question is, will the GOP nominate a Pro-choice republican? We'll have to see whether they will take Scarborough's advice, or push hard to the right with Pat Toomey.

Delaware--Can Mike Castle win against Beau Biden? Possibly. It's time to find out.

New York--Forget Schumer. Go after Tracey Flick (aka Kirsten Gilibrand). This is a seat that Peter King could win. I don't think David Patterson's behavior will make a difference. I do think that Wall Street, and Upstate voters could swing enough support away from Gilibrand, to a candidate who is perhaps more fiscally conservative, and more socially centrist. Perhaps there is another candidate in the wings? We'll keep an eye on this one.

Connecticut--Unlike Scarborough's prediction about the GOP, the reason Rob Simmons is doing well in the polls here has nothing to do with his politics. It has everything to do with Dodd's missteps--on AIG, on his own "less than kosher" financial dealings, and the fact that, after 30 years in the Senate, he's got no one left to do a favor for, or who owes him a favor. Simmons is a better reflection of what a Connecticut Republican could or should be--Socially moderate, fiscally more conservative. But in another year, he'd be losing by double digits. In 2006, the Republican got less than 5% of the vote here. 5%! That's down in the Natural Law Party territory. There were extenuating circumstances in that election too, but regardless. 5% for a major party can't happen. Ever.

That's 8 seats. That could be enough for a working majority, even though the Dems would have the advantage of setting the agenda. Who knows, anything can happen. Senators Kennedy and Byrd are in poor health. Byrd is in an increasingly Republican state. A further deterioration of the economy could put seats like Harry Reid (NV), or Daniel Inouye (HI--in his mid 80's) into question. It's a long shot, and the GOP would truly have to run the table. But it can be done. Getting the GOP to 51 seats in the Senate would flip the debate immensely.

At this point--I give it about 50-1 odds. But let's see where we stand in 6 months.