I keep coming back to this topic on the Pragmatic Pundit. Partly because I am an election junkie, and partly because I am looking for political shifts in both the Democratic and Republican Parties. There have been some interesting movements recently, but much of it remains "stage setting" for next year's main event.
And the Republican Party has a lot to be concerned about. Obama's popularity has stayed strong with the electorate as a whole, and it is demoralizing to some. And confidence hasn't been exactly riding high. Among recent set backs:
-The Congressional Election for the NY-20th district was conceded as a loss for the GOP Congressional Candidate, Jim Tedisco. This was a terrible loss for a district with about 70,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats. It really shows that New York, once a state with a strong moderate Republican voting block, has gone deep blue over the past 5-10 years. If Republicans won't develop a moderate plank, it may be time to write off New York entirely.
-Norm Coleman continues to lose appeal after appeal to Al Franken. At this point, it is beginning to look terrible for Coleman, not to mention Tim Pawlenty, for refusing to certify election results.
-Fundraising by Michael Steele has been less than spectacular, given the fact that a part time DNC Chairman, Tim Kaine, has essentially matched their fundraising efforts during the first quarter of 2009. The GOP should be way ahead on this front. It is a sign of an uninspired base.
-Both Pennsylvania and Arizona have put up Conservative challenges to Arlen Specter and John McCain. It is a sign that the GOP is NOT going to try to tack to the center, but it is going for broke, and pushing for Conservative purity. Hey, why not? The line of thinking isn't totally out of line, from a tactical standpoint. But the Conservatives have to hope that enough goes wrong in the country, that people have no alternative but to turn to the Conservative party. After all, that may be all that's left of the GOP at this rate.
-Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, and Rick Perry have all looked just terrible in recent months. All have, in their own way, showed themselves to be ill prepared to compete with Obama.
But Republicans should take some heart. After all, not all is lost here:
-Tax Tea Parties had a lot of support, and probably give some depressed Conservatives hope that they are not alone. The next step, though, is to continue the momentum. If Conservatives want to regain some power, or at least a voice, it is time to take these events, and start to craft a message.
-A leader in Newt Gingrich is starting to take shape. Newt seems to be able to provide the kind of thoughtful opposition to Obama's agenda that the John Boehners, Eric Cantors, and Michael Steeles just can't seem to muster. It may be time to go all in with Newt.
-Democratic overreach on Torture--it appears that the left wing of the democratic party has been pushing for a full disclosure on the torture issue. In the end, this could really backfire on the Dems, as they find that their own leaders were also involved in decision making, and that a majority people in America would trade torture for peace.
In all, stark choices on Immigration, Taxes, Gay Rights, Foreign Policy, and Bank Bailouts are all areas Republicans should be highlighting, and gaining back seats in Conservative areas in the next election. They have yet to show that they have organized themselves strategically, however. What I don't see is a plan to target the seats and the candidates that can define the issues favorable to Republicans, and start to hammer that message home in these districts. If the Republicans don't start to get their message together, they are going to lose control of the message, and they may be completely marginalized in 2010.
I am sure they wouldn't care about my advice, but if the GOP wants to regain power, or even start to gain some seats again in 2010, it will take more than hoping that the other guy fails. Start making the case for the GOP to be the party that leads. Start taking back those districts in Red States that lean Conservative. It's time for the GOP to get its act together. I have yet to see a real push in this direction. Time is starting to get short here.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
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