2010 Senate Elections--Update Watch

Usually, these Senate Races aren't all that interesting. But the upcoming races are all just too fascinating to watch. Or maybe it's more like watching a slow-motion train wreck. I can't decide which is going to be more fun to watch. Here's the top dozen or so on my mind, with recent news:

Kentucky--Jim Bunning's bizarre antics lately have led the party to believe that he is simply NEVER going to retain that seat. Their best hope is that he stays put until 2010, sees that it is hopeless, and drops out early, so that a better candidate can take on a surprisingly strong Democratic field challenging for the seat. A Democrat in that seat? Hard to believe, given the trend of the state. But very possible.

Connecticut--Chris Dodd is on the hot seat in CT for a number of reasons. A preferential loan received from Countrywide. A chairman seat presiding over the economic debacle. 5 terms in office. Unfortunately, the GOP has to convince a prominent candidate to run against him, and that seems to be a challenge in Connecticut, which is as blue as blue states get. If Chris Shays, or even Governor Jodi Rell is willing to step in and run, it could be interesting.

New Hampshire--Judd Gregg is not running again, and recent events surrounding the questionable relationship he has with the funding secured for projects too close to his family, could be contributing to that decision not to run. With John Sununu's recent conflict of interest embarrassment on the TARP administration team, there really isn't another prominent Republican to take on two or even three viable Democratic candidates. This seat will change hands.

New York--Schumer is fine, but Kirsten Gillibrand could face a primary, and then a tough election fight from Peter King (R) of Long Island. Where are all the Republicans in New York? What happened? This used to be a state with guys like Al D'amato in the Senate, and George Pataki in the Governorship. Sign of the times. The moderate Republican seems to be a thing of the past, I guess.

Pennsylvania--Specter should win here, but health is always a concern, and Pennsylvania has good Democrats to put up a good fight. Equally compelling will be to see whether Specter faces a primary battle from the right. Conservatives may consider him a judas after siding with the President on the budget battle. Rick Santorum reared his head recently, in support for Rush Limbaugh's "I hope he fails" campaign.

Ohio--Good race to succeed George Voinovich. Once again, a dying breed of Republican Moderate will likely be replaced with a Democrat. Barring any further deterioration of the employment and industrial base, anyway.

Florida--Could be an interesting race. Jeb Bush won't run. Charlie Crist could think about it, but after his support of the stimulus, it's unlikely. This could be a free for all, and a fun race to watch. I'll score this a "pick-'em"

Louisiana--David Vitter should win this seat. I just find it interesting that Mr. Moral Values, and Mr. DC Madam can co-exist, without feeling even a tinge of hypocrisy. Still, this is a redder state by the day, and Vitter should win easily.

Alaska--Lisa Murkowski will probably win, but I like to ask the question as to whether Sarah Palin would take this opportunity to go after the seat. There are some decent Democrats, but this seat will stay Republican. Senator Palin would certainly be a lot of fun to write about, though.

Hawaii--If Gov. Linda Lingle (R) decided to run against the ancient Daniel Inouye, she could win. She is an appealing candidate. I'll give her a better chance to win than people think. But she has to run first.

Nevada--remember when Republicans had Nevada tagged as the target to go after Harry Reid with? Seems like a long time ago. Repubs have a lot of targets now. Unfortunately for them, so do the Dems. Seems to be about an even split. Reid should win, unless the economy really goes south.

Illinois--Time for Roland Burris to leave. A special election would probably pit Richard Daley (D) against Rep Mark Kirk (R), and Daley probably has the edge. Except that Illinois is pretty upset with the Democratic machine right now, and Daley is the face of Illinois politics as much as anyone. Still if Daley wins a special election (if one is called in the first place), he'd be a shoo-in for re-election in 2010. If not, he may struggle to beat Mark Kirk in a general election. I'll give this a toss up status too.

Lots to keep an eye on. I'll update this in a few months...