Unreasonable 2009 Predictions

So, like most of you, I am through the Christmas Crush of gift openings at this point. I still have boxes everywhere, and cuts all over my hands from opening the Fort-Knox-like packaging on my son's new Geotrax playland, or my daughter's My Little Pony Merry-go-round.

I took a few days off from writing, and I thought about what was happening in the world these days. This morning, I took all of my ideas for blogs, and put them off for a day. I just couldn't bring myself to write about Bernie Madoff, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Rick Warren, or anything else.

I thought about where we would be as a country at this time, next year, if I could single-handedly make it happen. Here's what I came up with...

1. Obama gets sworn in, and has a stimulus package waiting at his office, as he arrives from the Invocation. He signs into law the package includes the following:

• A $1,000/family average Tax cut for the middle class. ($20/week is a nice start).
• Funding for state and local governments for Medicaid and SChip programs.
• A public works program to rebuild roads, bridges, tunnels, sewage, and water treatment plants
• A $5,000 tax credit for purchasing a car or truck that either get 40 MPG, or are electric/hybrid
• A $5,000 tax credit for individuals who put solar panels on their homes to generate at least a certain percentage of electricity (20% or more)
• A doubling of dollars spent on education, along with a set of accountability measures along the guidelines of No Child Left Behind.
• A $1/gal tax on gasoline, coupled with a $1,000 tax credit for all drivers of electric cars.

2. Obama signs a second fiscal package including the following:

• CAFE Standards raised by 20% for 2010, and 20% on top of that by 2012.
• A minimum standard of 50% sales of cars AND TRUCKS must be hybrid or electric by 2016
• Commissioning of a program to develop 20 Nuclear Power Plants in the next 10 years. Additionally, A goal of 1 million wind turbines in the wind corridors of this country in the same period.
• Construction of the electricity grid to handle the power generation from the new plants.

3. Mortgage rates dropping to 4% for 30 year fixed rates. For people with good credit, and those who have saved, and do not have debt outside their mortgage, what could be a better reward than to be able to refinance your mortgage and save a couple of hundred dollars a month? Investors who have been financially responsible are now rewarded with opportunities to buy good property cheap, and with low mortgage rates. This starts to stem the tide in the battle to fight the real-estate collapse.

4. Obama and Bob Gates work out a withdrawal plan for Iraq, which is to begin in February, and last 18 months (I threw in an extra 2 months, for good measure...). The plan is fortified by the Islamic world, and includes economic incentives for Syria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and yes, IRAN.

5. Oil starts to scrape $25/barrel. Saudi Arabia and Iran start to look for ways to deal with this mess, and decide, rather than incite violence in Israel, to take an economic deal with the USA, including recognition of Iranian Sovereignty by the US, and attempts to normalize relations with Iran.

6. Obama and the Congress work out a deal with GM to bring the Chevy Volt on line by the end of 2009, and gives the company, and individuals tax incentives to bring the price of the car down to $18,000 in 2010. The savings on gasoline each year (at $2.50/gal) is about $1,200 per vehicle. Each vehicle takes 480 gallons of oil off the market each year, or over 11 barrels of oil off our tab each year.

Interestingly, Toyota and Honda figure out a way to stay competitive here, and come up with an electric Camry and Accord. The same tax incentives apply, and the volume of new cars purchased starts to rev up. 3 million new electrics are purchased in 2010, but the volume ramp up starts in 2009.

7. The Stock Market starts to see what is happening in mortgage rates (crashing), autos (heating up), and public funding, and begins to build faith in American economic viability. The Dow crosses 10,000, and stays above that mark by the end of the year. Banks start to lend money, and, more importantly, companies and individuals, start to want to borrow, to build business. As mortgages start being taken over by people with good credit, and cheap mortgages at depressed prices, foreclosures start to stall out, and the government also gets repaid for its investments in Fannie Mae, and the banks. This all starts in 2009.

8. Gay Marriage is UPHELD in Connecticut, and Prop 8 is overturned by the courts in California. An attempt to put a similar proposition is put on the California ballot for referendum in 2009, and this time, it goes down to defeat.

(On an ideological aside, Let's call this what it is...there is NO excuse for denying homosexuals the right to marry, be afforded the same rights, and have to have the same yearly argument about taxes and spending that me and my wife have. This notion that protection of straight-only marriage is some sort of honorable defense of traditional values, is just silly. No one is suggesting that the Churches and Religious institutions change their ways. The marriages would only be in the eyes of the state, and the law. I am not on a religious crusade here. But there is no means by which the rights of individuals in this country should be superseded by the Biblical scripture. This idea that somehow certain citizens cannot marry really equates to telling them that they are second-class citizens. I can't advocate for that position, no matter what justification there may be to deny homosexuals the right to be married.)

9. One Supreme Court Justice is replaced, and Deval Patrick becomes the third African American Justice ever confirmed to the seat. He is debated by the Senate, but is confirmed by 80 Senators in the end. By the end of the year, two other Justices announce their plans to step down, and Obama has to choose two more Justices in 2010. Liberals finally have the victory they have been yearning for for years. The ability to protect the rulings they hold most dear (notably Roe v. Wade). Social Conservatives howl in protest, and the Republican party starts to find their voice again, around this issue.

10. NAFTA is expanded, and Free Trade Tariffs come down for the Western Hemisphere. We can now get cheap Sugar Cane fuel for our cars from Brazil! Excellent.

That's a start to the Pragmatic Pundit's unreasonable 2009 predictions. This is my own personal rose-colored glasses, world-according-to-me, scenario. I may revisit this in a month, and see if anything even close has come to pass. Let's hope we are not talking about some further economic, or geo-political disaster by then. On the other hand, folks, just think about the fact that in 23 days, there won't be any more political "shoe-throwing" to be had at the current administration. Let's see how things play out...