The Pragmatists Note to Governor Palin--If you want to be viable...

It seems that Sarah Palin just won't exit the political stage. Her prominence in the Saxby Chambliss election efforts just shows me that this is a person who will do whatever is necessary to keep herself relevant in the political discussion. So, I thought it would be interesting to think about how to make Sarah Palin into a candidate who can WIN the Presidency in 2012. I think there is a strategy that must be regional, and it can be done. But if there is a campaign manager listening, here's where I think Palin's image needs to be refined, region by region, and needs a multi-strategy approach to get through both the Republican field, and the Democrats. Here goes:

Northeast--Clearly, this area of the country is regarded by Republicans as the "killing fields". Sarah Palin is about as well received here as Alex Rodriguez walking into a bar on Boston's Newbury Street after a Yankee victory in Fenway Park. But it doesn't have to be that way.

If you want to gain any traction in the Northeast, drop the rallying cries of representing "Small Town America", and moose hunting. Republicans who do well in New England (and there are still a few), tend to be modest, fiscally conservative, and socially open minded. New Englanders make up their own minds about people, and don't like being told that you "represent Joe Sixpack" They will make up their own minds about who you truly represent.

A good start would be to focus on your hockey mom status, talk about your struggles as a mom with a special needs chlid. Describe your desire to bring energy independence through the Alaskan pipeline, and why this is important to New Englanders. Trust me, there are a lot of people in this part of the country who heat their homes with oil and natural gas. There are a lot of potential converts in the making, if you can make the case that you will help them with their winter heating bills. Or you can at least force the Democrats to defend their turf a little. Doing it while wearing a Red Sox hat couldn't hurt either...

South--as challenging as the Northeast is, the South is close to the opposite situation. The issue in the South isn't converting some Democrats, but exciting Republicans to vote for you over your fellow Republicans in the Primary. Why should Southern Fiscal Conservatives pick you over Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, or Bobby Jindal? Why should social conservatives select you over Mike Huckabee?

If I were you, I'd start to get a campaign fundraising machine going (if that's even allowed) as soon as possible. You can get ahead of some of these challengers in your party, by getting the money in your corner early, and drowning out the messages of some of these guys. Small town values? Second Amendment Rights? Pro-Life? Pro-States rights? All of those positions play well in the South. If you are speaking in this area of the country, keep banging that drum.

Midwest--Take the populist position on Government bailouts. If you want to make some hay here, hit tax cuts hard, and energy policy, as a way to generate new jobs. Social issues play here some, but people don't care about the Supreme Court when they don't have a JOB. In the Midwest, the message is "Vote for Palin. She'll cut taxes, to stimulate new business." The Midwest is a prime area to try to steal some states back from the Democrats in the next Presidential election.

Plains States--Like the South, this is Palin Country. Let's throw Texas in here, for good measure. The chief competition in this part of the country? Huckabee. Time to figure out how to get him out of the race early, so you can go after the other candidates. You aren't going to lose any of these states in the General Election (if you do lose them, you have no chance to win anyway, since it would mean Obama's policies have all worked, and the world is at peace, and is prosperous. A doubtful proposition...). This is the place to just get nasty with Huckabee, and then with Romney, Gingrich, Jindal, and whoever else dares to square off with you. Again, just bang that drum.

Mountain West--This is an interesting area. You have the strongest supporters (Utah, Idaho, Wyoming), and some more socially liberal areas (Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada). The Hockey Mom persona fits well here. The moose hunting plays even better. Discussing states rights, and being a Washington outsider here is a positive. Play it up. Dress in Jeans, plaid, and perhaps cowboy boots. The crowds will surely eat it up.

West Coast--Again, this is tough terrain. But what you have here is some opportunity to discourage your opponents in the Republican Primaries. Parts of Oregon, Washington and California are rugged, logging areas, anti-Washington, and pro-Gun. This is the part of the country you have to try to knock out Mitt Romney. Being the anti-Elitist, anti-East Coaster can be a huge play. Playing Mitt to even a tie here would be a huge step towards the nomination. Then during the election, focus on Oregon. It is the one state that could flip, with enough pressure. At least give it enough of a shot to make the Democrats play defense. For Pete's sake, McCain didn't even give it shot last time.

So the analysis leads me to believe that Palin can win the nomination, and could be a viable candidate in 2012. But she is going to need to launch an attack to knock out Huckabee first (with Money, and by getting Huckabee out of his comfort zone), and then start going after whoever emerges as the leader between Gingrich, Jindal, and Romney from an economic standpoint. Build the war chest. Get the money in the door. Build the inevitability case. And if this is going to stick, you are going to have to start early.

It's by no means a done deal. But President Palin in 2012 would hardly shock me. Get the plan in place. Start executing, or go home.