Georgia Runoff--Separate the fact from fantasy...

So, the Georgia runoff will be tomorrow (December 2), and a lot of hype has been circling this election redux. What to make of the news stories? Here's the Pragmatic viewpoint, and my best effort to separate facts from post mortem fantasy...

1. Background:

a. On November 4, incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss defeated Rep. Jim Martin by about 3 percentage points, in a state (Georgia) that went for John McCain by about 5 points (52-47).

b. Neither candidate achieved a 50% majority in the election, so the State mandates a runoff, which is being held tomorrow, Dec. 2.

2. Pre-game analysis:

a. Chambliss has an advantage here for a few reasons: First, he is playing in a state that went Republican during a Democratic landslide. Second, he has the power of incumbency and name recognition. Third, he won't have to overcome a surge in the voting that took place on the Democratic side on November 4. The excitement for Obamaniacs to come out for...well...Jim Martin? I can't imagine it is there. Even with the excitement, and voter push, Obama still lost by 5 points the last time.

b. Chambliss does have to fight an uphill battle, though, as Obama's shown to be something other than a Liberal Ideologue (if he had read the Pragmatic Pundit's website, he would have known that already!). Additionally, Bill Clinton and Al Gore have both come to the state to try to gin up support for their man, Jim Martin. Obama's forces have stayed down there, and are doing all they can to get the vote out.

c. Chambliss has John McCain and Sarah Palin coming down to the state for rallies today. This one's interesting. We will get back to this in a moment.

3. Prediction--Chambliss wins 54-45%

It will be bigger than even the polls are showing at this point. Chambliss should win. But the victory will be interesting for me to watch because of what the aftermath suggests.

The television news media will count this as the following:

a. A direct rebuke of the state to Obama's policies
b. A sign that Sarah Palin can really rally the Republican base.
c. The "Hanging on" of Republicans to the Filibuster.

Since perception is reality, all three points will be played to the hilt. The facts don't back up the story, though, and here's why:

a. The vote for Chambliss in a Southern Republican Stronghold should never have even been this close. It was only close due to the strength of Obama on the ticket. And there are no Obama policies that have been espoused at this point that are out of the mainstream of the core Republican constitutency, with which people can point and say "THAT is the policy people of Georgia voted AGAINST". This will be purely a Republican state electing a generic Republican Senator.

b. Claiming someone else's victory as your own is a time-honored tradition in US politics. In this case, Sarah Palin, with the help of the main-stream media, will surely claim that her support was the deciding factor in the election of Saxby Chambliss, and that will keep her relevant in the years ahead, as the Republican Party figures out what direction it wants to go. But helping someone win who is already ahead in the polls, in a Republican leaning state, who WON the last round, isn't exactly the stuff of legends. The real story on this point will be if Chambliss LOSES after Palin has gone down and stumped for him. That will probably elicit an editorial from me and about a thousand other bloggers.

c. This concept of hanging onto the Filibuster is the biggest crock in politics. Filibuster votes are issue by issue. There isn't an issue where there will be a strict party line vote. Certainly, Joe Lieberman is never going to vote to cut off funding for the Iraq war, and so his Democratic alegiance won't mean squat when the actual votes are counted on that issue. There are enough Conservative Democrats (Ben Nelson, Byron Dorgan, Max Bacus, etc), or Liberal Republicans for that matter (Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George Voinovich, etc) to muddy the waters. Additionally, most of these folks each have specific issues where they are more or less Liberal or Conservative.


In the end, I will be stunned if Saxby Chambliss isn't returned to the US Senate. But if it DOESN'T happen, it could mean the temporary demise of Sarah Palin (don't worry, Palin fans. She'll be back. No doubt about it). The fight for the true soul of the Republican party will be on. That should be worth the price of admission.