This is the age-old question, and will probably still be burning for years to come. Can a two-state solution really exist in the Middle East? And what should we do currently, to help resolve the imminent war in Gaza? I'll try to break this down as objectively as I can:
Background:
I won't go into the history of the formation of Israel, post-WWII, and the subsequent wars with its neighbors in 1948, '56, '67, '73, and beyond. But the discussion here will center around three pieces of land--The West Bank, Gaza Strip, and Golan Heights.
a. Golan Heights--A strip of land in the north-eastern extreme of today's Israel, Golan was annexed during previous wars with Lebanon and Syria, as a "buffer" of sorts, to prevent future attacks, and has been bitterly disputed by Lebanon and Syria ever since. Groups like Hezbollah have been based in Lebanon and backed by Syria, and have been plotting and scheming ways to force Israel out of the Golan Heights, and eventually "into the Mediterranean Sea". Any Peace Settlement that could hold will have to deal with this land.
b. West Bank--This is the largest of the three land disputes, and is the territory on the "West Bank" of the Jordan River. Notably, this is where Jerusalem is located. The holy city is home to some of the most sacred landmarks for both the Jewish and Islamic faiths. Hence the struggle, and battle for the right to call this city, and this surrounding land, "Ours". During the 1993 Oslo Accords, Rabin and Arafat agreed to a land-for-peace deal (one which cost Rabin his life in 1995). Currently, this area is governed relatively autonomously by the Fatah government by Abu Abbas (Abu Mazin), and has shown signs of recognizing Israel's sovereignty, and reducing the violence between the two peoples.
c. Gaza Strip--recent elections (pushed heavily by the Bush Administration's dogmatic approach to spreading democracy) resulted in the election of Hamas to most leadership positions. Emboldened by the election results, a "semi-coup" more recently took place in the Gaza Strip, where Fatah leadership was basically ousted. A tentative cease-fire was put in place with Israel, which was flouted on both sides. The Israelis have made it virtually impossible to enter or exit the country, and hard to generate any economic viability. The Palestinians have consistently ignored the calls to cease firing rockets into Israel, causing great angst. In general, this has been a cease fire that has been practically ignored on both sides, and not enforced by any type of international body or force. At this point, the cease fire agreement has lapsed, and no one has made any real attempt to renegotiate the deal. As the Palestinians continued to fire rockets, the Israels have decided to use this as an opportunity to retaliate using a shot gun on an ant. Their mission is to take out Hamas.
So, What to DO?
This is, as usual, the impossible question concerning the Middle East. The only mitigating factor this time around, has been the reluctance of many of the Sunni-backed governments to immediately jump to the defense of Hamas's actions. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan have decried Israel's response, but have not been particularly supportive of Hamas in this conflict. These governments are loathe to see Hamas succeed, since it could spawn similar movements in their countries.
Still, none of the surrounding Sunni countries, or the other middle eastern countries for that matter, want to see an all out war. So what can really be done?
Here's a course of action that may be a little premature, but I think ought to be pursued.
1. Send Condoleeza Rice AND Hillary Clinton to the Middle East, to try to negotiate a cease-fire with Hamas (give it 6 months to start).
2. Continue to work with Fatah, and the surrounding countries, to come up with a mutual recognition of Palestinian authority and sovereignty, in exchange for recognition of Israeli sovereignty BY ALL PARTIES.
3. Require that any subsequent terrorist actions taken by groups on Israel be dealt with by the Arab countries in the form of public condemnation, and prosecution. Any failure to do so could result in economic sanctions.
4. Install a multi-national peace-keeping force to protect the rights of both nations to co-exist.
5. Provide economic aid to the Gaza, West Bank, and Golan areas, and resist attempts to embargo the areas.
6. Insist that Israel curtail it's push for increased settlements in disputed areas.
7. Give the Golan back, under the auspices of recognition of Israel by Lebanon, Syria, and Hezbollah. Back up any deal with 10,000 peacekeepers at the border. Hezbollah may feel emboldened based on the last dust up with Israel, but I wouldn't put my money on them if the two were ever to have a rematch.
It is the classic land-for-peace deal. It needs to be backed up with rhetoric, and peace-keeping forces. Even then, I wouldn't give it better than a 50-50 chance of success.
There is a reason I don't like to address this issue much, and that is that there is no GOOD solution here. Both sides have too many good arguments for being the side of justice, and being oppressed. Israel DOES have a right to exist. The Palestinian Authority DOES have the right to a Holy Land, their homes, self-rule, and the ability to prosper. Both have viable claims on the disputed territories. It's a mess. But it isn't like you can wipe one group off the map. Like Aladdin, you can't put the genie back in the bottle at this point. So let's try to make the best of some bad options, and see if there are enough cool heads in the middle east to allow for each side to play for the tie, rather than push for victory.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
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