Could Texas ever REALLY turn Blue?

Over the course of about 2 weeks after the elections, I continued to check some polling sites, to find out what the final breakdown of votes, states, etc were from the 2004 election. I wasn't sure what I was looking for, except that I figured I would know it when I saw it.

There were some interesting anomalies

• The NY Times map showing that the only part of the country that went increasingly Republican was the Ozarks through the lower Appalachian range areas. Everywhere else moved to the left, in an almost stunning sea of blue.
• The swath of states in the heart of the South--Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, and West Virginia had been Democratic states, and had become the deepest red in the nation (Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia had all gone for Clinton at some point, not too long ago).

But to me, the more interesting point was Texas. This has been the bastion of Conservatism, the home of the Bushes, ground zero of the Republican machine. Tom Delay was from here. Much of W's famous advisers, and cabinet selections have roots in Texas (Rove, Gonzales, Miers, Leavitt, McClellan, etc).

McCain won the state, but only 55-45%. And by less than 1 million votes. Why was this? Most of the more conservative states had McCain winning by more, supposedly bolstered by the Sarah Palin excitement. Why not Texas? Here's a few things I to think about, as we watch some of the upcoming Texas elections.

1. Katrina--how many people who have left New Orleans as a result of Hurricane Katrina, have stayed in the Houston area? I probably need to try to get some stats on whether there is a significant portion of Democrat-leaning people who have now settled across the Texas border. It may explain some of the trending towards the Republican party in Louisiana in the recent elections.

2. Immigration--As primarily Mexican immigrants come into Texas, it is no coincidence that the Democratically elected congressmen and women are all along the Mexican border, is it? The Republican party had made some tremendous inroads into the Hispanic population, until the GOP fought off the Comprehensive Immigration Reform efforts in 2007. In doing so, they looked like they were very anti-Hispanic in the process. Whether such a perception is warranted or not, it is there, and was obvious in the 2008 general election, where John McCain (who actually SUPPORTED the bill!) lost support in the Hispanic community, and lost 2/3rds of the Hispanic popular vote to Barack Obama. Can the Republicans afford to lose this block of voters, if it is the growing minority demographic in Texas?

For kicks, I looked at the names of the Texas Congressmen that were Democrats (Rodriguez, Cuellar, Ortiz, Reyes), and I looked at the names of the Congressmen that were Republicans (Paul, Olson, Barton, Conaway, etc). I am not suggesting that the GOP is solely the party of JR Ewing. But Texas is no longer solely the land of rich oilmen. It is a multi-ethnic population, that is becoming increasingly Hispanic. If the Republicans continue to look anti-immigrant, and in turn, anti-Hispanic, they are going to lose in the long term.

3. Austin/Hi-tech--It is interesting that the high-tech and university area of Texas has become such a hot bed of liberalism. Let's see if that population increases next time.

4. Oil--Does Texas still produce oil? I know we import a lot these days. But even T. Boone Pickens is looking at wind, LNG, and other sources. And with oil dropping down to $40/barrel, I wonder if Exxon is thinking about their profit margins, and their workforce reduction possibilities. Let's see how dealing with a Democrat, who is interested in working on alternative energy sources, leaves the people who were Republicans simply because of the power it wielded them in Washington on this topic.

5. Democratic Primary--perhaps the biggest influence on the Democratic party in Texas was the primary/caucus last year. Before 2008, when was the last time we even talked about Democrats in Texas? 1988? Nothing rallies the party like a primary, and some national attention. It will be interesting to see if it translates into some party interest statewide.

So, let's see how Texas does in the upcoming elections. A blue Texas could equate to the death of the Republican party in its current state and ideology. Similar to the effects of the Reagan landslides of 1980 and 1984 on Democrats, if Texas were to turn blue, it could mean a LONG walk in the wilderness for the Republican party in the years to come.