2009--Optimism WILL RETURN!!! Here's Why

I have spent the past 2 months watching the economic picture get worse, and people start to really fear the future of the American Economy. I even wrote a blog not long ago declaring the current economy "dead", and using terms like "game over". I have asked questions like "who is making any money out there?", and the like.

Over the past few days, I am starting to get some answers that lead me to believe that we WILL rebound from the recent economic meltdown, and I am hopeful, for the first time in a while, that things will start to get better in 2009.

1. Humility--I am seeing, for the first time I can remember, a humility in my neighbors, my co-workers, and our politicians. This notion that America is so great that we can continue to live beyond our means, borrow and spend, and never have to pay, has met a dose of reality. But like most things, a dose of reality, a dose of humility, and some medicine for what ails us are all good signs that we have started down the road to recovery. We still have a ways to go, but seeing companies take a sober look at expenses, admit that they need help, and try to sacrifice to survive, all show that people from all parts of our society recognize the gravity of the situation.

With this humility comes the ability to take advantage of the next signs I am seeing...

2. Proposed Tax Refunds for the Middle Class--I am hopeful that even a $1,000 tax cut will help people start to feel some relief. $20/week helps a lot of people...

3. Real conversations about real economic change--We have been more serious about things like getting off the oil standard, changing the transportation industry, funding infrastructure projects, or education, than we have been in years. Budget responsibility is important, but let's see what actually funding programs does for our tax base.

4. Investment plays starting to emerge--we are starting to see winners and losers shake out of this downturn. All the sellers have been wrung out of the stock market. The low cost providers have been winning (Walmart, McDonalds, etc). Also, commodities have taken a beating. They may continue to do so, but a lot of the froth is off the price of these positions. Taking a bet on some of these companies could pay off tremendously going forward. I make no promises, but it is something I am thinking about in 09.

5. Mortgage Rates--30 year mortgages are down to 5.6% If this drop continues, by early next year, if we can get rates down to the mid 4% range, what an opportunity to refinance! Those with jobs (92% of you!) would find tremendous cash savings with a refi. This could even represent the end of the mortgage meltdown.

6. Dollar will stay strong/Oil could stay low--Europe and Asia are still a few months behind our collapse. The dollar could continue to be the stable worldwide currency for a while to come. This will keep oil prices low, and provide a cost benefit to all drivers out there in the USA (which is practically all of you out there over 16 years old).

7. Personally, every light bulb I change to an energy efficient bulb, puts a few shekels in my pocket. I will continue to do my part to help this country get off the oil standard (it ain't much, but every little bit helps).

8. Think about a home improvement effort this year--I'll bet if you call all those people who quoted you a price on central air, or roofing, or landscaping a year ago, will cite you a cost that's significantly less. If you can afford it, you can definitely save some dough.

Stay Positive!!!--some of this is a natural depression cycle. People have been right to be concerned, pessimistic, and the reaction to the economic news has been appropriate. But at some point, this country will stop feeling worried and depressed, and start to make some sound decisions as to how to take advantage of low interest rates, low prices, low gas costs, and positive policy changes. I think that time could be 2009.