what do the states look like?

Just a quick runnin-fool's take on the states, and how they are shaking out right now:

Just looking at the Electoral map, like I sometimes do. Let's start with the map where we left it after the 2004 election. Kerry 252, Bush, 286. That means McCain just has to hold serve. Win all of W's states, and he's made in the shade. But he wants to expand the base, as one would expect. Obama wants to turn the tables, so let's see what each of them can swing.

Swing states (gawd, I hate that term, but here goes):

McCain's wish list states--

Pennsylvania (21)--I think we have all heard James Carville's line about PA (Philly, Pittsburgh, and Alabama in between, or something like that). In reality, it looks like an Obama winner. Since Biden is running to be the Mayor of Scranton (honestly, how many times do I have to hear about his Scranton roots!), perhaps we should consider the fact that Rendell, Casey, and the rest of the PA brass help pull about 1-2% of the electorate Obama's way. I don't even know that Obama needs that right now. But he might by the time November 4 rolls around...
PA goes for Obama

New Hampshire (4)--Yeah, people think McCain is the Senator from New Hampshire, and all that. I think it is a state that is getting more Democratic each year, and not choosing Romney may have cost McCain this state. Don't hold your breath...
NH goes for Obama

Minnesota(10)--This one puzzles me. I thought for sure this was a lock for Obama. Not so sure any more. I still think Obama wins it in a close call, but this is one of those states that is trending red. It isn't red, but it's "open to suggestion", if you know what I mean (and no, I don't mean that in a racial, sexual, or any other way you may be thinking of! get your mind out of the gutter, people!). What I mean by that is that they have elected Republicans to statewide office, and to Washington, and it is a state that would flip in the right political climate. Unfortunately for McCain, if he doesn't do something soon, that climate will leave him out in the cold.
MN goes for Obama

I could continue with New Jersey (15), Michigan (17) or even Washington (11) or Oregon (7), but I think if any of those three states went Republican, it would be the sign that the winds had shifted so drastically as to turn into a McCain rout.


Obama's Wish List--


Iowa (7) --This is a state that Obama campaigned in for a year solid, and set up a great organization. It is a state that likes the messages about biodiesel, and ethanol, and likes being paid attention to. McCain basically skipped this state during the primary, and will pay a price, unless things shift significantly in the short term here.
IA goes for Obama

New Mexic0 (5)--This is a state with a strong Democratic leadership apparatus, but has been pretty down the middle. Sadly, one of McCain's allies in this state (Pete Domenici) is sick, and one (Heather Wilson) has been ineffective, leading to a state that has been leaning Democratic in both the Presidential and Senate races. It's going to be hard to stop Obama here.
NM goes for Obama

Those were the easy ones. Now it gets tough

Colorado (9)--This is a state that defies logic in some respects. The frontal range is a combination of granola-eating, sandal-wearing liberals from the Denver-Boulder area, and hard-c0re, military-lovin, bible-thumpin conservatives from the Colorado Springs area. Brand R has been the leading party for years, but the tide seems to be turning. I still don't see enough of a clear move to Obama on this front, though, and while I think it's a tossup, I think McCain's military service rallies the base here, and he squeaks by
CO goes for McCain

Ohio (20)--this state has definitely moved towards brand D, but it's by no means a lock. This state continues to have voter issues, both registraions and machines. While the Dems are in positions of power, to avoid another "theft" of the election, I don't think it will prevent McCain from cleaning up in more rural areas, and greater Cincinatti. Tax cuts, and straight talk will probably carry the day here.
OH goes for McCain.

Florida (27)--this state should have been McCain's without an issue. Only one problem. People on social security started watching their 401k's lose significant value. Once reminded that it was the Republicans who wanted to open up the stock market to their Social Security funds, things started to move. I do think that as the markets stabilize, people will start to come home. This is still a state that is probably about 52-48 Republican in a normal year. I think it ends up 51-49 McCain
FL goes for McCain

North Carolina (15)--Obama has made the case in this state, that it represents the new South. One where he is viable. And he is. I don't think this is a state that is ready to make the leap to the Democratic ticket in this environment, however. I think Obama performs admirably, but in the end, loses by about 4-5 points.
NC goes for McCain

Nevada (5)--Obama certainly has some advantages here. Hispanics have turned from McCain. Labor is important here. Many have moved here from California, and elsewhere who don't bring the old, more conservative viewpoints. However, this state has stayed stubbornly red, and I don't see any game-changers at this point, that would lead me to believe that it will flip in this election cycle.
NV goes for McCain.

Virginia (13)--I think this becomes the state for all the marbles. Obama should end up with 264 electoral votes without Virginia. I don't think he will be able to win Missouri, Indiana, or West Virginia, unless there is a swing nationwide towards Obama (in which case, all of these swing states would probably go for Obama). In this case, Barack has a field game, an aparatus, a popular Democrat running for the senate (Mark Warner), and a popular Governor (Tim Kaine) in his corner. I think this becomes the state that flips to blue, and becomes the tie breaker.
VA goes for Obama.

I see an Obama victory, at 277 to 261. Let's see how it all plays out...