Virginia--There's something happening here...

"...There's something happening here...What it is ain't exactly clear...I think it's time we STOP LISTEN WHATS THAT SOUND? EVERYBODY LOOK WHAT'S GOING DOWN..." (Buffalo Springfield)

If Barack Obama goes on to win the Presidential election, I will be interested to see whether it is Virginia that puts him over the top. Because if Virginia peels away from the "Solid South" voting block, it will represent one of the first times in the modern political landscape (post 1976), that a Southern State broke away from its neighbors without extenuating circumstances (ie, one of the candidates was from a particular Southern state, or a third party candidate skewed results.).

Why is this significant? Particularly for Democrats, this is a seismic shift in the political landscape, and could tilt the playing field in their favor for the first time in 30 years.

The "Solid South", along with Texas, the Mountain West and the plains states, have represented a base of support for Republicans that have led to landslides (1980, 1984, 1988), and helped to escape narrow victories (2000, 2004). The only elections that Democrats have won in 40 years have been with sons of the South, to peel away support from this base (Carter--1976, Clinton--1992, 1996). Even Tennessee native Al Gore couldn't win in the South in 2000, not even his own home state.

But this year could prove to be different. If states like Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, or even Florida (which isn't a "southern state" as much as it is a "state of insanity") voted for Obama, it wouldn't be unusual, unique, or even atypical, given that two out of four voted for Gore, and some would argue that three out of four did in 2000.

If Virginia were to vote for Obama, it would represent a "peeling away" of the Southern strategy--a crack in the block of the Republican base. More importantly, it would represent the first true "defection" from the bastion of Conservatism, and could produce a change in the state from a "Southern Republican" state to a "Mid-Atlantic Democratic" state.

Such a shift doesn't happen easily in the US. The Civil War, resentment towards the Northern states, and their Liberal viewpoints, create a real aversion for Southerners to vote along similar party lines as their northern counterparts, regardless of their politics. But Virginia has started to become a "Mid-Atlantic" state, and less of a "Southern State", at least politically.

To be fair, this is still a state that is proud of its heritage, being the cradle of liberty in the United States, home to General Robert E Lee. It is still a conservative state--one that would not easily be confused with, say, Vermont or Massachusetts.

But the election of Jim Webb as Senator in 2006 struck a chord in me. Here was a situation where the incumbent Senator (George Allen) was being considered as a possible Presidential candidate, or at least on a short list for VP. Someone who was popular, and should have won in a cake walk. He did step in it with his use of a racial ephitet (the "Macaca" incident...), but in other Southern States, such a blunder wouldn't cost a popular, up-and-comer in the party his seat. It couldn't, could it?

Yet by 2006, Allen had other forces against him--the party ideology, and sense of entitlement, and a state with a demographic makeup that was shifting to the left. The Washington suburbs were becoming more Liberal, and the rural areas had seen Mark Warner and Tim Kaine lead their state, and the world had not ended. Suddenly, it seemed okay to vote for a Democrat. Webb ran a tough campaign, and showed that he understood Virginia, was a military and defense expert, and had been a man who had finally had enough with the establishment party in charge of his state.

Now roll forward to 2008. The state has moved even closer to the dividing line between left and right, Republicans are in a tough electoral year, and Mark Warner is running in a Senate race, where there doesn't even seem to BE an opposing candidate (Jim Gilmore, where in the world is your campaign these days?).

If Virginia goes for Obama (and the polls are showing a lead there that is getting pretty formidable with 18 days to go), it could be the beginning of the "peeling away" of the Southern voting bloc.

In 2010 and 2012, should Obama win, and the country not absolutely fall to pieces, we could see a scenario where North Carolina and Georgia, with a growing percentage of young, college-educated populations, start to believe that a Democrat can represent their positions, and not just bend to the will of John Kerry, Nancy Pelosi, and Harry Reid. A fracture in the Solid South would mean that Brand R would need to rethink how they choose candidates, and decide whether they wanted to be a pure Conservative party, and begin to rebuild their base from this core (a la Goldwater), or try to move to the middle, and win major elections, to keep the country from moving away from them (a la Clinton).

We are a long way from this scenario, but no matter who wins, the Republican party is going to have to face the fact that its base may no longer be enough to keep its dogmatic Conservative leaders in charge of things, either at the Presidential level, or in Congress.

I wonder what that would look like? I think the first sign of this could be what is taking place in Virginia...