Sarah Palin--Future of the Republican Party?

By now it is pretty obvious that if John McCain wins the Presidency (which I still think he has a REAL chance to do, as you see in my previous postings), he will only serve 4 years. This makes the choice of Sarah Palin a more important VP pick than any we have had in years. So, let's break things down on Sarah Palin, the good, the bad, and the ugly...

The Good--
Here is an attactive leader, who can deliver a good line, lay out a clear vision for the country, and has understandable, traditional viewpoints on everything from social issues (guns-for, abortion-against), to Foreign Policy (America-good, Russia-bad, Islamofascists-bad), to government (socialism-bad, taxes-bad). She has stirred Conservative America from the doldrums of watching George W. Bush fumble his way through everything from Katrina, to the economy. Conservatives don't trust McCain, and for the first time in years, they are energized by this new face on the scene, who can lead their ideology for the next 20 years. A lot of the liberal establishment is afraid that her and her message WILL resonate, and that they will be looking at a Sarah Palin-led party, that can woo women over to the Conservative point of view.

The Bad--
Palin's message, while ideologically pure, isn't where the majority of America is these days. People aren't looking at their futures and seeing a return to Reagan-style policies. Many are, but more than ever, people don't see government as the problem, they see Wall Street and free trade, and offshoring as the problem. People not making a lot of money don't see heady economic times ahead, and don't think that cutting taxes for the wealthy makes a lot of sense for them (Joe the Plumber aside).

On another topic, Palin is playing the attack dog role for the President, and this is something that is consistent with the VP contenders. But her speeches have left moderate and left-leaning America aghast at the fact that such sharp barbs can come from someone who is trying to have the Reagan optimism. Many of the attacks don't come across as "happy warrior", but more as "vindictive, self-perceived victim" type of shots. One friend of mine says that Palin comes across as if "someone on the Left did her wrong at some point in the past, and NOW ITS PAYBACK TIME". The problem with that kind of attitude is that Republicans have been, for the most part, in charge of some or all branches of government over the past 8 years, and it's hard to say that the situation people find themselves in is somehow the fault of the party NOT in power...

Saturday Night Live--People who saw her appearance said that "she killed". I saw the show. What I saw was someone who did NOT show a human face to the situation. Someone who was visceral in her disdain for how she had been treated, and someone who was clearly not putting a positive spin on the lampooning she had been receiving. This was an episode, again, that Conservatives probably think put the SNL problem to bed. I think the rest of the electorate saw what I did. Someone who felt they HAD to go on the show, but in the end, couldn't hide her contempt for people lampooning her. She looked like the stereotype being portrayed. That's bad.

The Ugly--

Katie Couric--Katie Couric must be thanking her lucky stars to have landed the interview of the election cycle. Never before have we seen the depth of someone's thinking on issues laid bare in such a stark episode as the Couric interviews. Sadly, this was not Mike Wallace, probing with tough questions, this was NOT Tim Russert, trying to find ways to box her into a corner. This was Couric, throwing "batting-practice" meatballs, and Palin flailing away at answers that were totally incongruent, and incoherent. These interviews may be a challenge for Palin to EVER overcome, but I think she's too much of a fighter to let this stop her meteoric rise to the top of the party.

Trooper Gate--This got ugly in the sense that she was found to have broken the rules in regards to the termination of the trooper (good ole "what's his name") in Alaska. The reason this is even on the list, is that it will be linked to her, even if people don't really remember the details. We know that she used her authority to misbehave. Something that has plagued too many Republicans over the past 20 years.

Clothing Gate--This was ugly, but in this case, the crime wasn't as bad as the reaction. Who cares if the clothing goes to Charity afterwards? I wonder if the donors to the party know that their money is going to her wardrobe, hair and makeup, rather than voter registrations and actual campaigning? The reaction has been to the excessive amounts of $$$ spent, and the fact that now, every time we see her, we aren't going to be thinking about her representing "Joe Sixpack", but we will be thinking "I wonder how much she spent on that dress?".

In the end, if McCain loses, Palin becomes the temporary "face" of the Republican Party, going into 2012. She has the ideology and dogma of the party down pat. The question is, does she become the Reagan-like leader of the Party, to lead it ahead, or does she end up Dan Quayle, someone forever linked to her public gaffes. I am inclined to say that she ends up more like the latter, but American politics are a strange beast. Don't ever count people out. Just look at Nixon or Reagan's careers.