"Obama Defeats McCain?"--Not so fast...

October 23--
Have you heard the news!? The race is over! Obama Won! Woo-hoo! Pop the champagne!

Man, I wish I had put some money down on those Intrade Market Odds that I see at Realclearpolitics.com, showing Obama with an insurmountable lead in the electability odds (at least that's what I THINK that is showing...). I could have CLEANED UP! Or perhaps recouped some of the losses in my 401k, College Fund, personal savings, GE Stock, etc, etc.

Whew! Back to the election speak. Now that the election is over, we can go ahead and have the election now.

So Obama is up 15 points, and winning in all the swing states, right? He's got no red herrings left out there, no recent mistakes, and he's on the trail, every day, speaking to huge crowds, right? McCain is actually in the fetal position on his couch, with Sarah Palin busy trying to hang on to votes in Nebraska and Alaska, right?

I say this to every Conservative I know, and to anyone supporting McCain. It's not over.

There are at least 6 key developments to play out, not even counting any type of international disaster, terrorist attack, Bin Laden tape, or random DUI-like skeleton from Obama's past resurfacing. Most of the remaining developments could move the electorate a point or two. In McCain's case, that's all he would need.

Now I can hear someone saying "but this race is really about states, and electoral votes, right?" True, so I will see if I can identify where each of these developments could help McCain and hurt Obama. Here goes:

1. Polls aren't all they seem--Driving into work this morning, I was listening to POTUS 08 on XM Satellite. AP news has the election being decided by 1%--Obama 44, McCain 43. Another poll had the election at 2 points differential. If you listen to FOX News, they have the election at 9 points. So who's right? Who knows. Realclearpolitics.com tries to do an average of legit pollsters, which is as good as I have found on the internet, but that's probably not as "real" and "clear" as even they would like. So could this really be a 4-6 point Obama lead at this point? Probably more likely than not. 4-6% in 13 days? Seems doable to me...

2. Obama's winning ALL the swing states? Not so fast. Even the polls are finding that in most of the swing states (FL, MO, OH, NV, CO, VA, NC) McCain is winning in as many polls as he is losing in. And NM, IA, NH and PA are not as certain as the media would lead you to believe. Don't take my word for it, look online at Zogby, Realclearpolitics, Gallup, Rassmussen, etc. It wouldn't take much to nudge each of these states 1-2 points. Now THAT's VERY doable.

3. Red Herrings--Joe the Plumber won't go away. This drives Brand D crazy. Some Conservatives really believe Obama IS a Socialist, but for the middle of the country, the moniker is an easy way to describe the fact that an Obama administration would push the country significantly to the left. That's simply a fact. If the Conservatives in this country see this as trouble for them, it may boost turnout, and give them a point or two. Where? Certainly not in California or Connecticut (where it wouldn't matter anyway), but in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. All three are pick em states. Further traction on this could make the difference in these states.

4. Major Gaffes--Honestly, I wonder if Biden, Murtha, Kerry, Pelosi, and Schumer realize that the best thing they all can do is take a 12 day vacation together in Cozumel? Obama has to be thinking to himself, "with friends like these, who needs enemies?" Each has managed to once again show the country how to disenfranchise middle America, and scare the pants off of fence-sitters in this election. This could be THE issue, were it to gain traction, that could cost Brand D the election. Joe, what the heck were you talking about? International Crisis? When you are winning the race, you don't look for the ammunition to hand to your opponent. And up until then, most people were concerned about a Sarah Palin speech gaffe. Jack Murtha, I think the country now understands why Steny Hoyer got the Majority Leadership post in the House, and not you. Calling out people as racists never goes over well. Chuck Schumer--got those curtains measured in the Oval Office yet? Never underestimate this group's ability to fritter this election away. In all, could cost 1-2 points--minimum-- ACROSS THE BOARD for Biden's comments. The other guys will hurt--Murtha in PA (1-2 points), Schumer perhaps, not so much, unless Palin can turn it into a rallying cry on the campaign.

5. Time away from the Campaign--Obama is in Hawaii for the next couple of days, visiting his sick Grandmother. We are all respectful, and wish her and him well, and hope things turn out okay. In the meantime, it is two to three days for the GOP to hammer home messages without the media being able to cover any Democratic activity. It also heightens the risk that Biden will try to fill the void, and say something else, equally damaging. If you are a McCainiac, two to three days at this point is a gift from heaven. The stage is yours. Go get another point off of Obama's lead, Senator.

6. Obama's tv buys next week--this is tricky. It is going to be hard to deal with such a substantial tv time buy so close to the election. But here is where you can try to hit Obama on campaign finance reform, and hope that Obama comes across as over-confident, and tries to be President before he is elected. It is something Obama has already messed up, as many critics say his speech in Berlin was inappropriate. Only the President should give such speeches to the American people. This could prevent an Obama bounce.

All this gets McCain about 4-6 points, and could flip enough swing states. I admit, he is going to need to run a flawless campaign, and hope these things break in his favor. No more Palin clothes news, no more Congressmen BS about "Real Americans", no more Stock Market collapses. Could be a challenge. On the otherhand, this is a guy who keeps coming back. Perhaps it is time to start thinking about putting a few dollars on McCain on the Intrade Market Odds site. It's a better bet than Bob Barr...