It is being broadcast that the McCain campaign is pulling out of Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado, because they are not convinced that they can win in these places. What I have to ask is "what IS the strategy to WIN the election for McCain?"
If we assume that the polls are accurate, and each of the states that John Kerry won in 2004 are already safely in the Obama column, that means Obama would start with a 252 electoral vote base. Conceding Iowa (7 votes), New Mexico (5 votes), and Colorado (9 votes), would elect Barack Obama, with 273 electoral votes (270 to win).
Why would McCain do this? The only way for him to win would be to pull one of Obama's states over to his side. And it appears that McCain is aiming to do just that. His target? Pennsylvania, with 21 electoral votes.
To be sure, McCain winning Pennsylvania would be devastating to Obama's chances. However, I am struggling to understand why going after a state that is polling 10 points in Obama's favor makes sense. Winning Pennsylvania would require just about a full-court press to potentially turn the tide.
During that effort, McCain would give Obama an open shot at trying to win Virginia (13 votes), Ohio (20 votes), Missouri (11 votes), North Carolina (15 votes), Nevada (5 votes), and Florida (27 votes). Seems strange to risk 91 votes to go after 21...
We must be getting down to desperation time. I don't understand why. Polls are going to tighten. They always do. Just let John Kerry, BarneyFrank, and Chuck Schummer (not to mention Joe Biden) bloviate, and stick their foot in their mouths. It will happen.
Is there something magical about Pennsylvania? Can someone please help me out here?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
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